DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z SUN 02/02 - 06Z MON 03/02 2003
ISSUED: 01/02 17:24Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MEDITERRANEAN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

SYNOPSIS

BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER EUROPE STILL REMAINS AND WILL BE REBUILD AS NORTH-ATLANTIC LONG-WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD ... AND ASSOCIATED WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL JETSTREAM WILL AFFECT WESTERN EUROPE ON LATE SUNDAY / MONDAY. OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN, WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY CURRENT WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION

...EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN...
EASTWARD REMOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE-LOW WILL INFLUENCE GREECE AND SOUTHEASTERN BALKAN STATES ON SUNDAY. WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LAYERING SHOULD BE STABLE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE-LOW, COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. INSULAR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OVER SEA WHERE CAPE IS FORECASTED TO REACH SOME HUNDREDS OF J/KG, BUT SHEAR-PROFILES DON'T LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR ORGANISED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. PROBABLY STRONG WINDGUSTS COULD BE PRODUCED BY DOWNDRAFTS, IF DRY AIR IS PRESENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

...WESTERN EUROPE...
STRONG UPPER JET-STREAK / 300-HPA-WINDS OF 50 TO 60 M/S, WILL REACH WESTERN EUROPE ON SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY MORNING. HIGH VORTICITY-ADVECTION IS FORECASTED OVER THE BRITISH ISLES, WESTERN FRANCE, AND BENELUX. AT THE SAME TIME, ONLY SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECASTED. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS SMALL, MODERATE SHEAR ASSIST ORGANISED CONVECTION LIKE COMMA-CLOUDS. SEVERE WINDGUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

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